Antony Slumbers #SpaceAsAService
SYNTHETIC DEMONSTRATION

THE OWNER’S DECISION

Asset Strategy Lab.

Sell, hold or reposition. Put the assumptions to work.

#SpaceAsAService — The Trillion Dollar Hashtag
ACTIVE SCENARIOBase case
£/sq ft
£/sq ft
months
All assumptions

Sell now leads by £677,246 over refurbish + re-let. Preference reflects these inputs, with no risk weighting.

CASH, BEFORE THE EXIT

The ten-year path

HoldRefurbish
1.1m0.0m-1.9mHold + essential works · Year 1: -£261,512Refurbish + re-let · Year 1: -£1,646,494Y1Hold + essential works · Year 2: £516,987Refurbish + re-let · Year 2: -£401,133Y2Hold + essential works · Year 3: £416,716Refurbish + re-let · Year 3: -£223,816Y3Hold + essential works · Year 4: £493,359Refurbish + re-let · Year 4: -£30,535Y4Hold + essential works · Year 5: £729,934Refurbish + re-let · Year 5: £938,596Y5Hold + essential works · Year 6: £419,079Refurbish + re-let · Year 6: £492,805Y6Hold + essential works · Year 7: £519,703Refurbish + re-let · Year 7: £588,795Y7Hold + essential works · Year 8: £605,788Refurbish + re-let · Year 8: £1,036,939Y8Hold + essential works · Year 9: £508,141Refurbish + re-let · Year 9: £897,485Y9Hold + essential works · Year 10: £585,288Refurbish + re-let · Year 10: £1,000,357Y10

Annual net cash flow after all works and leasing fees, excluding the terminal sale. Sell-now proceeds are received at month 0. Hover a bar to inspect its value; all figures are in the Cash flows tab.

REFURBISHMENT BREAK-EVEN

What has to be true?

Maximum base suite works cost£75.71/sq ft
Minimum achieved rent today£43.94/sq ft

Each threshold changes one assumption and holds everything else fixed. Refurbishment must match the better of selling now and holding. Cost includes neither the 12% contingency nor the separate common works budget.

CAPITAL & TERMINAL EXPOSURE

Look beyond the headline

Ownership optionHoldRefurbish
Peak cash funding£0.26m£2.30m
10-year capital + fees£2.30m£6.24m
Net exit proceeds£11.70m£21.09m

Funding = maximum cumulative cash deficit before sale; assumes no cash distributions. Net proceeds deduct disposal costs and known Year 11 capital / leasing obligations.

Change an assumption to recalculate. Numeric edits apply on Enter or when you leave the field.

Asset Strategy Lab

Alder House · synthetic UK office · Base case

#SpaceAsAService

04/10/2026 · 36,000 sq ft · 27.8% vacant · £692,000 passing rent

Decision under current assumptions

Sell now has the highest PV, ahead of refurbish + re-let by £677,246. This is a cash-flow comparison with no probability or risk weighting.

StrategyPresent valuevs sellingPeak fundingNet Year 10 exit
Sell now£10,638,000+£0£0£0
Hold + essential works£8,006,981−£2,631,019£261,512£11,698,087
Refurbish + re-let£9,960,754−£677,246£2,301,978£21,088,385

Key assumptions

Gross sale now £10,800,000; discount 8.5%; disposal 1.5%; rent growth 2% pa; cost inflation 2.5% pa. Essential works £650,000, shared across ownership options.

Hold: £29/sq ft rent; 9 months void; 6 months rent-free; 7.75% exit yield; £12/sq ft re-letting capex.

Refurbish: £42/sq ft rent; £95/sq ft suite works + 12% contingency; £450,000 common upgrade; 6 months works + 6 months letting; 9 months rent-free; 6.5% exit yield.

Landlord costs £2/sq ft pa, void costs £8/sq ft pa, management 3% of cash rent, leasing fee 10% of annual headline rent, new leases 60 months. Recurring capex from Year 2: hold £1.5, refurb £1/sq ft pa.

Annual net cash flow · £000, including exit in Year 10

StrategyY0Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Y7Y8Y9Y10
Sell now10,6380000000000
Hold + essential works0-26251741749373041952060650812,283
Refurbish + re-let0-1,646-401-224-319394935891,03789722,089

Refurbishment break-even against the better alternative

Maximum base works cost: £75.71/sq ft. Minimum achieved rent: £43.94/sq ft. Each varies one input only; common works and contingency remain additional.

Lease expiries and conventions

Northbank Analytics: 8,000 sq ft, £27/sq ft, expiry M18; Fielding Legal: 7,000 sq ft, £28/sq ft, expiry M30; Meridian Services: 6,000 sq ft, £25/sq ft, expiry M42; Atlas Design: 5,000 sq ft, £26/sq ft, expiry M60; Vacant · ground west: 6,000 sq ft, vacant; Vacant · second east: 4,000 sq ft, vacant.

Month-end cash flows discounted monthly at an effective annual rate over 120 months. Existing rents stay fixed to expiry; all tenants vacate. Full suite upgrade occurs once. Incentives and light capex repeat on subsequent leases. Terminal = non-negative Year 11 cash NOI / exit yield − disposal costs − Year 11 capital / leasing allowance. Year 11 cash is not added to the DCF.

Synthetic demonstration, not market evidence or a valuation. No debt, tax, VAT, renewals, defaults, early breaks, surrender, dilapidations or costs beyond Year 11. No survey or compliance assessment. Verify the asset and leasing assumptions before committing capital. Antony Slumbers · #SpaceAsAService · spaceasaservice.substack.com